15219 Cliff St

Hamshire, TX 77622

$259,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,155/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$470
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-130/mo
• Annual: $-1,565/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamshire-Fannett ISD (rural): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #398 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.