15219 Cliff St · Hamshire, TX 77622

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1988 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 3/2/2 located in Hamshire - Fannett ISD. This home offers an open concept w/ wood-like tile throughout, stainless appliance, gas range, beautiful counter tops & backsplash, custom cabinets, on-demand hot water heater, and good closet space! Spacious primary bedroom has walk-in shower, soaking tub, w/ convenient access to the utility room. Outside enjoy the large covered back patio and yard with privacy fence. Call today!

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• Open concept
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• STAINLESS APPLIANCE
• GAS RANGE
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• ON-DEMAND HOT WATER HEATER
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamshire-Fannett ISD (rural): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #398 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,484 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $9,313
• Equity at exit: $102,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $62,745
• Equity at exit: $147,023

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77622

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$362 /mo · $4,338/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,320

Max offer price $236,857

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   price $259,900
3. 2026-03-10
   price $265,000
4. 2026-03-01
   listed $270,000 Active
5. 2024-03-14
   price $259,900
6. 2023-04-10
   historical
7. 2023-02-20
   price $275,000
8. 2023-02-20
   price $275,000
9. 2022-10-07
   listed $289,000 Active
10. 2022-07-18
    listed $289,000 Active
11. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus
13. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus
14. 2021-05-04
    status Pending
15. 2021-04-23
    status Option Pending
16. 2021-04-22
    listed $226,380
17. 2021-04-12
    price $226,380
18. 2021-03-29
    listed $231,000 Active
19. 2019-11-01
    soldstatus
20. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus
21. 2019-10-21
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,338 · $362/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,756 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$418/yr (+$35/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$4,338
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,069
• − Management: −$2,069
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$6,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,449
• After-tax cash flow: $-117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamshire-Fannett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822320
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,626
• Composite: 34.59/100
• National rank: #5160
• State rank: #398 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hamshire

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,799

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Serbian 4% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Current HPI: 179.7969
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+205.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $259,900 BBOR
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $265,000 BBOR
• 2026-03-01 Listed $270,000 BBOR
• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $259,900 BBOR
• 2023-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-20 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-20 Price Changed $275,000 BBOR
• 2022-10-07 Listed $289,000 BBOR
• 2022-07-18 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-22 Listed $226,380 BBOR
• 2021-04-12 Price Changed $226,380 HARMLS
• 2021-03-29 Listed $231,000 HARMLS
• 2019-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2019-10-21 Listed $85,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,338 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.