16220 Jessie St

Lower Lake, CA 95457

$199,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active Under Contract · 258 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$691
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-169/mo
• Annual: $-2,028/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.5% below list).
• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,274 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lower Lake Elementary (math 15% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,376 of 1,571 statewide, top 89%, 752 students, 78% FRL); Highlands Academy (reading 24%, 12 students, 92% FRL); Lower Lake High (math 4% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,034 of 1,170 statewide, top 88%, 1,057 students, 79% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.