16220 Jessie St · Lower Lake, CA 95457

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 257 Days on market

Built 1950 0.29 ac lot $166/sqft · 33% below area Est $297k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Upon entering the 3 bedroom 1 bath  home, you will find an inviting atmosphere, accentuated by updated doors and windows that contribute to both aesthetics and energy efficiency. The spacious kitchen features contemporary white cabinetry paired with durable countertops, creating a functional yet stylish space for cooking while providing ample storage. The exterior boasts a large yard, ideal for outdoor activities and gatherings, offering plenty of room for gardening or play. A seasonal creek meanders through the property, enhancing the natural beauty and providing a serene backdrop for relaxation.

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Spacious kitchen
• Large yard

Tags

• UPDATED DOORS
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CONTEMPORARY WHITE CABINETRY
• DURABLE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.1% in Lower Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,274 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lower Lake Elementary (math 15% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,376 of 1,571 statewide, top 89%, 752 students, 78% FRL); Highlands Academy (reading 24%, 12 students, 92% FRL); Lower Lake High (math 4% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,034 of 1,170 statewide, top 88%, 1,057 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,040 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,213
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -32.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9730 Lake St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+6%)	5mo	$279,000	$218	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,107
• Equity at exit: $71,083

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $24,440
• Equity at exit: $96,699

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95457

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,178/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,202

Max offer price $170,040

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-56	-5% $-112	+0% $-169	+5% $-226	+10% $-282
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-248	+0% $-169	+5% $-91	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-68	-0.5pp $-118	base $-169	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 257 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 239 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 238 DOM
16. 2026-02-22
    status Active 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Upon entering the 3 bedroom 1 bath  home, you will find an inviting atmosphere, accentuated by updated doors and windows that contribute to both aesthetics and energy efficiency. The spacious kitchen features contemporary white cabinetry paired with durable countertops, creating a functional yet stylish space for cooking while providing ample storage. The exterior boasts a large yard, ideal for outdoor activities and gatherings, offering plenty of room for gardening or play. A seasonal creek meanders through the property, enhancing the natural beauty and providing a serene backdrop for relaxation.

17. 2026-01-20
    historical Active Under Contract 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Upon entering the 3 bedroom 1 bath  home, you will find an inviting atmosphere, accentuated by updated doors and windows that contribute to both aesthetics and energy efficiency. The spacious kitchen features contemporary white cabinetry paired with durable countertops, creating a functional yet stylish space for cooking while providing ample storage. The exterior boasts a large yard, ideal for outdoor activities and gatherings, offering plenty of room for gardening or play. A seasonal creek meanders through the property, enhancing the natural beauty and providing a serene backdrop for relaxation.

18. 2025-12-30
    status Active 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Upon entering the 3 bedroom 1 bath  home, you will find an inviting atmosphere, accentuated by updated doors and windows that contribute to both aesthetics and energy efficiency. The spacious kitchen features contemporary white cabinetry paired with durable countertops, creating a functional yet stylish space for cooking while providing ample storage. The exterior boasts a large yard, ideal for outdoor activities and gatherings, offering plenty of room for gardening or play. A seasonal creek meanders through the property, enhancing the natural beauty and providing a serene backdrop for relaxation.

19. 2025-12-30
    price $215,000 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Upon entering the 3 bedroom 1 bath  home, you will find an inviting atmosphere, accentuated by updated doors and windows that contribute to both aesthetics and energy efficiency. The spacious kitchen features contemporary white cabinetry paired with durable countertops, creating a functional yet stylish space for cooking while providing ample storage. The exterior boasts a large yard, ideal for outdoor activities and gatherings, offering plenty of room for gardening or play. A seasonal creek meanders through the property, enhancing the natural beauty and providing a serene backdrop for relaxation.

20. 2025-12-08
    historical Active Under Contract 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Upon entering the 3 bedroom 1 bath  home, you will find an inviting atmosphere, accentuated by updated doors and windows that contribute to both aesthetics and energy efficiency. The spacious kitchen features contemporary white cabinetry paired with durable countertops, creating a functional yet stylish space for cooking while providing ample storage. The exterior boasts a large yard, ideal for outdoor activities and gatherings, offering plenty of room for gardening or play. A seasonal creek meanders through the property, enhancing the natural beauty and providing a serene backdrop for relaxation.

21. 2025-10-04
    listed $219,000 Active 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Upon entering the 3 bedroom 1 bath  home, you will find an inviting atmosphere, accentuated by updated doors and windows that contribute to both aesthetics and energy efficiency. The spacious kitchen features contemporary white cabinetry paired with durable countertops, creating a functional yet stylish space for cooking while providing ample storage. The exterior boasts a large yard, ideal for outdoor activities and gatherings, offering plenty of room for gardening or play. A seasonal creek meanders through the property, enhancing the natural beauty and providing a serene backdrop for relaxation.

22. 2025-07-17
    historical
23. 2025-01-06
    price $220,000
24. 2025-01-06
    price $220,000
25. 2024-12-23
    price $242,000
26. 2024-12-23
    price $242,000
27. 2024-09-23
    price $254,000
28. 2024-09-19
    listed $254,000 Active
29. 2024-09-19
    historical
30. 2024-08-18
    listed $259,000 Active
31. 2024-08-05
    listed $259,000 Active
32. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed Sale
33. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus $170,000
34. 2023-08-26
    historical Active Under Contract
35. 2023-04-22
    listed $189,500 Active
36. 2003-09-12
    historical
37. 2003-03-12
    listed $189,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,178 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,178
• − Insurance: −$6,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,264
• After-tax cash flow: $-764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lower Lake

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1274
• US rank: #26451

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,036

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Current HPI: 173.5678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+13.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-08 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-10-04 Listed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $220,000 BAREIS
• 2024-12-23 Price Changed $242,000 BAREIS
• 2024-12-23 Price Changed $242,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $254,000 BAREIS
• 2024-09-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $254,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-18 Listed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-05 Listed $259,000 BAREIS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) $170,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-26 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-04-22 Listed $189,500 CRMLS
• 2003-09-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2003-03-12 Listed $189,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,178 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.