7976 N Tecumseh Rd

Koontz Lake, IN 46574

$110,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1941 · SingleFamily · Pending · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $243/mo
• Annual: $2,917/yr
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.47%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#516 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Oregon-Davis School Corporation (rural): math 19% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #257 of 301 in IN (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Starke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Starke County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $110k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.1% in Koontz Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.