1011 Shadwell

San Antonio, TX 78228

$72,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,282 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 358 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,572/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $555/mo
• Annual: $6,655/yr
• Cap rate: 15.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.01%
• DSCR: 2.47
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodlawn Hills El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 437 students, 91% FRL, charter); Jefferson H S (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,147 of 1,632 statewide, top 71%, 1,686 students, 87% FRL, charter).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.