30802 Coast Hwy Unit M11

Laguna Beach, CA 92651

$379,000A-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$698
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,061
• Net cashflow: $5,068/mo
• Annual: $60,815/yr
• Cap rate: 22.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.06%
• DSCR: 3.58
• 1% rule: 2.59%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($61k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $379k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $334k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#276 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Laguna Beach Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #343 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 0.7% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,815/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($147k/yr) (locally 1265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.