4865 South St

Amenia, NY 12501

$289,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$414
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-355/mo
• Annual: $-4,257/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (31.0% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,014 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, employment B+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Northeast Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #592 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Webutuck Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 221 students, 56% FRL); Eugene Brooks Intermediate School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 226 students, 0% FRL); Webutuck High School (math 95%, 195 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $290k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.