4865 South St · Amenia, NY 12501

$289,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1950 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and thoughtfully updated, this single level home offers modern comfort with a touch of style. The remodeled kitchen and bath, upgraded floors, and crown molding create a refined living space. Just minutes from the Wassaic Train Station and a short ride to the Harlem Valley Rail Trail, you'll enjoy both convenience and outdoor beauty. Set in Amenia—the Gateway to the Berkshires—this home invites you to embrace a lifestyle of adventure and ease. Roof, appliances, floors new in 2021. The siding was new in 2023. Septic pumped Sept 2025

Key facts

• Upgraded floors
• Modern kitchen
• Crown molding

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• UPGRADED FLOORS
• CROWN MOLDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,014 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, employment B+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Northeast Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #592 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Webutuck Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 221 students, 56% FRL); Eugene Brooks Intermediate School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 226 students, 0% FRL); Webutuck High School (math 95%, 195 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $290k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $200,000 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $135,281
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $416,124
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12501

• Home prices YoY: 10.7%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $227,232

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-191	-5% $-273	+0% $-355	+5% $-437	+10% $-519
Rent	-10% $-513	-5% $-434	+0% $-355	+5% $-276	+10% $-197
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-281	base $-355	+0.5pp $-430	+1.0pp $-506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3304 New York 343 Unit 2R Amenia, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	24d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   status Active
3. 2026-04-03
   status Pending 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Charming and thoughtfully updated, this single level home offers modern comfort with a touch of style. The remodeled kitchen and bath, upgraded floors, and crown molding create a refined living space. Just minutes from the Wassaic Train Station and a short ride to the Harlem Valley Rail Trail, you'll enjoy both convenience and outdoor beauty. Set in Amenia—the Gateway to the Berkshires—this home invites you to embrace a lifestyle of adventure and ease. Roof, appliances, floors new in 2021. The siding was new in 2023. Septic pumped Sept 2025

4. 2026-04-03
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Charming and thoughtfully updated, this single level home offers modern comfort with a touch of style. The remodeled kitchen and bath, upgraded floors, and crown molding create a refined living space. Just minutes from the Wassaic Train Station and a short ride to the Harlem Valley Rail Trail, you'll enjoy both convenience and outdoor beauty. Set in Amenia—the Gateway to the Berkshires—this home invites you to embrace a lifestyle of adventure and ease. Roof, appliances, floors new in 2021. The siding was new in 2023. Septic pumped Sept 2025

5. 2026-03-14
   historical Active Under Contract 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Charming and thoughtfully updated, this single level home offers modern comfort with a touch of style. The remodeled kitchen and bath, upgraded floors, and crown molding create a refined living space. Just minutes from the Wassaic Train Station and a short ride to the Harlem Valley Rail Trail, you'll enjoy both convenience and outdoor beauty. Set in Amenia—the Gateway to the Berkshires—this home invites you to embrace a lifestyle of adventure and ease. Roof, appliances, floors new in 2021. The siding was new in 2023. Septic pumped Sept 2025

6. 2025-12-22
   price $289,900 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Charming and thoughtfully updated, this single level home offers modern comfort with a touch of style. The remodeled kitchen and bath, upgraded floors, and crown molding create a refined living space. Just minutes from the Wassaic Train Station and a short ride to the Harlem Valley Rail Trail, you'll enjoy both convenience and outdoor beauty. Set in Amenia—the Gateway to the Berkshires—this home invites you to embrace a lifestyle of adventure and ease. Roof, appliances, floors new in 2021. The siding was new in 2023. Septic pumped Sept 2025

7. 2025-12-22
   price $289,900

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Charming and thoughtfully updated, this single level home offers modern comfort with a touch of style. The remodeled kitchen and bath, upgraded floors, and crown molding create a refined living space. Just minutes from the Wassaic Train Station and a short ride to the Harlem Valley Rail Trail, you'll enjoy both convenience and outdoor beauty. Set in Amenia—the Gateway to the Berkshires—this home invites you to embrace a lifestyle of adventure and ease. Roof, appliances, floors new in 2021. The siding was new in 2023. Septic pumped Sept 2025

8. 2025-11-09
   listed $299,000 Active 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Charming and thoughtfully updated, this single level home offers modern comfort with a touch of style. The remodeled kitchen and bath, upgraded floors, and crown molding create a refined living space. Just minutes from the Wassaic Train Station and a short ride to the Harlem Valley Rail Trail, you'll enjoy both convenience and outdoor beauty. Set in Amenia—the Gateway to the Berkshires—this home invites you to embrace a lifestyle of adventure and ease. Roof, appliances, floors new in 2021. The siding was new in 2023. Septic pumped Sept 2025

9. 2025-11-09
   listed $299,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Charming and thoughtfully updated, this single level home offers modern comfort with a touch of style. The remodeled kitchen and bath, upgraded floors, and crown molding create a refined living space. Just minutes from the Wassaic Train Station and a short ride to the Harlem Valley Rail Trail, you'll enjoy both convenience and outdoor beauty. Set in Amenia—the Gateway to the Berkshires—this home invites you to embrace a lifestyle of adventure and ease. Roof, appliances, floors new in 2021. The siding was new in 2023. Septic pumped Sept 2025

10. 2018-09-24
    soldstatus $91,000
11. 2003-09-08
    soldstatus $115,000
12. 2000-11-28
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,524 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,212 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$9,486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,277
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeast Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,965
• Composite: 39.37/100
• National rank: #8150
• State rank: #592 of 755 in NY

Livability — Amenia

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1014
• US rank: #19739

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime D Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amenia, NY
• City population: 2,374
• Population (ZIP): 2,374

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% Korean 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.87%
• Current HPI: 289.3974
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+314.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $289,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $289,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-09 Listed $299,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-09 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2000-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,524 · +26.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.