The Lawson Plan

Catawba, NC 28609

$269,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,650 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 396 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,350/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,575
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-219/mo
• Annual: $-2,626/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $84,084

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 396 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#494 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Catawba County Schools (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #54 of 178 in NC (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,016 units permitted in Catawba County in 2024 (255 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Catawba County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Catawba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 396 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.