The Lawson Plan · Catawba, NC 28609

$269,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily · 393 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Split staircase
• Foyer
• Rear yard

Tags

• FOYER
• LIVING DINING KITCHEN LAYOUT
• REAR YARD
• SPLIT STAIRCASE
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• SPACIOUS CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $269,990

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas and electric service available; Central HVAC with heat pump
• Home design: The Lawson plan; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Plan home at 2239 Catawba Trace Dr, Catawba NC 28609

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (standard to The Lawson plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas, electric, and heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan name: The Lawson)

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,300.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Catawba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#494 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Catawba County Schools (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #54 of 178 in NC (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,016 units permitted in Catawba County in 2024 (255 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Catawba County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,000 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2206 Catawba Trace Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,650 (0%)	8mo	$289,980	$176	89
2195 Catawba Trace Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,650 (0%)	8mo	$279,240	$169	88
2198 Catawba Trace Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,650 (0%)	9mo	$300,595	$182	88
2226 Catawba Trace Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,650 (0%)	13mo	$293,840	$178	87
2231 Catawba Trace Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,813 (+10%)	12mo	$294,985	$163	73
2194 Catawba Trace Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,813 (+10%)	9mo	$294,750	$163	71
2219 Catawba Trace Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-9%)	12mo	$299,270	$199	71
2147 Catawba Trace Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,813 (+10%)	1mo	$298,495	$165	66
106 4th St SE	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,585 (-4%)	6mo	$467,080	$295	64
2323 Trollinger Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-7%)	8mo	$280,000	$182	53
5192 Duck Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-8%)	8mo	$293,000	$193	48
105 4th St SE	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-13%)	13mo	$325,000	$227	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-62,562
• Equity at exit: $44,776

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-72,278
• Equity at exit: $25,964

Cash invested: $84,084 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28609

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,575
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,504/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,627

Max offer price $268,638

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,075
• Closing costs: $9,009
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2802 Legacy Ridge Ln Catawba, NC	4.0	2.5	1955	$2,350	$1.20	22d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 392 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 391 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 390 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 387 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 384 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 383 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,990 Active 382 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 379 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 378 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 377 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 375 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,821
• − Property taxes: −$4,504
• − Insurance: −$1,502
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$8,736
• Taxable loss: −$7,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,890
• After-tax cash flow: $-736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Catawba County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700690
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,180
• Composite: 44.71/100
• National rank: #2754
• State rank: #54 of 178 in NC

Livability — Catawba

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #18075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Catawba, NC
• Population (ZIP): 6,617

Population outlook (Catawba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,513 people
• By 2030: 155,267 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 151,110 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 145,524 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 134,047 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 119,424 · -23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Catawba

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.6% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+37.0 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.61%
• Current HPI: 277.7327
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B