7 Groton Ln

Coram, NY 11727

$649,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,520 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,774/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax + insurance: −$1,082
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,002
• Net cashflow: $-714/mo
• Annual: $-8,568/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $181,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $649k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-714 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $546k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $477k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($610k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $477k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Longwood Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Coram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,774/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 994% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.