7 Groton Ln · Coram, NY 11727

$649,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,520 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 1977 0.34 ac lot $258/sqft · 16% below area Est $776k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! Renovation ready fixer-upper, Great Investment Potential. Selling AS-IS

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-714 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $546k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $477k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $477k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Coram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Longwood Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,774/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 994% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($610k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $477,357 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $775,788
• List price: $649,000
• Delta: -16.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Glenmere Ln	0.33mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,559 (+2%)	12mo	$515,000	$201	65
42 Chestnut St	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,200 (-13%)	6mo	$730,000	$332	60
15 Canterbury Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,333 (-7%)	2mo	$615,101	$264	60
113 Pine St	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,511 (-0%)	10mo	$740,000	$295	58
70 Fairfax Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,300 (-9%)	8mo	$725,000	$315	56
44 Winside Ln	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,350 (-7%)	11mo	$700,000	$298	51
98 Wedgewood Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,170 (-14%)	7mo	$650,000	$300	46
51 Gaetano Ln N	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,236 (-11%)	5mo	$655,000	$293	46
123 Wedgewood Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,170 (-14%)	3mo	$743,000	$342	43
6 Barclay Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,237 (-11%)	10mo	$494,000	$221	42
17 Whitmore Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,200 (-13%)	6mo	$546,500	$248	40
41 Wedgewood Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,321 (-8%)	13mo	$635,000	$274	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-142,463
• Equity at exit: $96,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-147,912
• Equity at exit: $56,114

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11727

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$811 /mo · $9,735/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,002
• Net cashflow: $-714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,677

Max offer price $545,687

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-265	-5% $-490	+0% $-714	+5% $-938	+10% $-1,162
Rent	-10% $-1,091	-5% $-903	+0% $-714	+5% $-525	+10% $-337
Rate	-1.0pp $-387	-0.5pp $-549	base $-714	+0.5pp $-882	+1.0pp $-1,053

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Wicket St Coram, NY	4.0	4.0	2398	$5,500	$2.29	0d	1	0.88mi
52 Huron St Port Jefferson Station, NY	3.0	2.0	2161	$4,350	$2.01	0d	1	1.44mi
11 Oak Pl Selden, NY	4.0	2.0	1976	$4,200	$2.13	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $649,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $649,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $649,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $649,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $649,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-03-25
   listed $649,000 Active 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! Renovation ready fixer-upper, Great Investment Potential. Selling AS-IS

10. 2024-11-13
    historical
11. 2024-11-07
    listed $499,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$9,735
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,583
• − Management: −$4,583
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$20,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,823
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Coram

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12097

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coram, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 28,495
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,495
• Household income: $103,287
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 18% Black 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 8% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -571.88%
• Current HPI: 388.8297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.66%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+30.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-07 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid