16450 Frontage Rd #26

North Edwards, CA 93523

$42,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 345 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,468/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $772/mo
• Annual: $9,262/yr
• Cap rate: 31.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.46%
• DSCR: 5.03
• 1% rule: 3.45%
• Cash to close: $11,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5 of equity ($294 loan paydown + $-289 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#930 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Muroc Joint Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #340 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.