16450 Frontage Rd #26 · North Edwards, CA 93523

$42,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 345 Days on market

Built 1984 ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable & Updated Mobile Home – Minutes from Base Jobs & Easy Freeway Access! Looking for convenience and comfort? This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is perfectly located just minutes from local military bases and major employers. Enjoy an easy commute with quick access to the freeway, while coming home to updated comfort.

Key facts

• Built 1984
• Listed 345 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#930 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Muroc Joint Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #340 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5 of equity ($294 loan paydown + $-289 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.46%
• DSCR: 5.03
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $46,657
• Equity at exit: $10,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.11×
• Total profit: $108,362
• Equity at exit: $12,029

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93523

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $267/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $491

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,500 Active 345 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,500 Active 344 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,500 Active 343 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,500 Active 342 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,500 Active 340 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,500 Active 339 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,500 Active 336 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,500 Active 335 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $42,500 Active 334 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $42,500 Active 331 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,500 Active 330 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,500 Active 329 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,500 Active 328 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,500 Active 327 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    price $42,500 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Affordable & Updated Mobile Home – Minutes from Base Jobs & Easy Freeway Access! Looking for convenience and comfort? This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is perfectly located just minutes from local military bases and major employers. Enjoy an easy commute with quick access to the freeway, while coming home to updated comfort.

16. 2026-01-02
    price $50,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Affordable & Updated Mobile Home – Minutes from Base Jobs & Easy Freeway Access! Looking for convenience and comfort? This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is perfectly located just minutes from local military bases and major employers. Enjoy an easy commute with quick access to the freeway, while coming home to updated comfort.

17. 2025-12-03
    price $54,500 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Affordable & Updated Mobile Home – Minutes from Base Jobs & Easy Freeway Access! Looking for convenience and comfort? This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is perfectly located just minutes from local military bases and major employers. Enjoy an easy commute with quick access to the freeway, while coming home to updated comfort.

18. 2025-08-03
    price $55,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Affordable & Updated Mobile Home – Minutes from Base Jobs & Easy Freeway Access! Looking for convenience and comfort? This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is perfectly located just minutes from local military bases and major employers. Enjoy an easy commute with quick access to the freeway, while coming home to updated comfort.

19. 2025-07-18
    price $65,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Affordable & Updated Mobile Home – Minutes from Base Jobs & Easy Freeway Access! Looking for convenience and comfort? This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is perfectly located just minutes from local military bases and major employers. Enjoy an easy commute with quick access to the freeway, while coming home to updated comfort.

20. 2025-07-08
    listed $92,000 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Affordable & Updated Mobile Home – Minutes from Base Jobs & Easy Freeway Access! Looking for convenience and comfort? This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is perfectly located just minutes from local military bases and major employers. Enjoy an easy commute with quick access to the freeway, while coming home to updated comfort.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $267 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 20.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$267
• − Insurance: −$1,715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,410
• − Management: −$1,410
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $9,201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,208
• After-tax cash flow: $7,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Muroc Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626490
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,457
• Composite: 26.31/100
• National rank: #7241
• State rank: #340 of 517 in CA

Livability — North Edwards

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #930
• US rank: #24267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Edwards, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,681

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 354.8553
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-53.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $42,500 CRMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $50,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $54,500 CRMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $92,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+278.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $267 · +3860.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.