3408 Ciniza Dr

Gallup, NM 87301

$89,000B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,202/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $374/mo
• Annual: $4,491/yr
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.02%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#15 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Gallup-Mckinley Cty Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #54 of 95 in NM (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Indian Hills Elementary (302 students, 100% FRL); John F. Kennedy Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #26 of 27 statewide, top 100%, 630 students, 100% FRL); Miyamura High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #36 of 110 statewide, top 45%, 1,393 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in McKinley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McKinley County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.