3408 Ciniza Dr · Gallup, NM 87301

$89,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1963 7,840 sqft lot ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3408 Ciniza Drive, a well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home offering 1,568 square feet of comfortable living space. Perfect for first-time buyers, growing families, or anyone seeking a peaceful retreat with incredible scenery. This inviting home features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, a bright living area, and a practical kitchen ready for your personal touches. The two bathrooms provide convenience for daily living or hosting guests. What truly sets this property apart is its backyard — you’ll love the scenic views of the Hogsback, a striking natural landmark that offers breathtaking sunrises, sunsets, and a sense of wide-open New Mexi

Key facts

• Backyard
• Scenic views
• Local amenities

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#15 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Gallup-Mckinley Cty Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #54 of 95 in NM (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Indian Hills Elementary (302 students, 100% FRL); Miyamura High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #36 of 110 statewide, top 45%, 1,393 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 24% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gallup-Mckinley Cty Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in McKinley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McKinley County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.02%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $9,409
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $38,861
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87301

• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $728

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $399	+0% $374	+5% $349	+10% $324
Rent	-10% $279	-5% $327	+0% $374	+5% $422	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $397	base $374	+0.5pp $351	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   listed $89,000 Active
3. 2025-09-01
   price $179,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $3,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$777
• After-tax cash flow: $3,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gallup-Mckinley Cty Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501110
• Math proficiency: 17% —
• Reading proficiency: 30% —
• Median HH income: $30,298
• Composite: 22.01/100
• National rank: #13541
• State rank: #54 of 95 in NM

Livability — Gallup

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #6953

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gallup, NM
• City population: 21,981
• Population (ZIP): 21,981

Population outlook (McKinley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,386 people
• By 2030: 94,451 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 107,369 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 119,937 · +35.7%
• By 2075: 148,818 · +68.4%
• By 2100: 160,771 · +81.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.91)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 51% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McKinley

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 60.7% · R 36.2% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 43.9pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+38.6 2016: D+39.8 2012: D+46.6 2008: D+43.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.73%
• Current HPI: 143.4008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-50.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $89,000 NMMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $179,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.