3835 GARDINER Fry #32

Vina, CA 96021

$162,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,612/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $258/mo
• Annual: $3,100/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $45,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $162k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (0.5% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,345 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Corning Union High (rural): math 12% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #1,151 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.