25 Millstone Rd #25

Dumbarton, VA 23228

$150,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,132 sqft · Built 1962 · Condo · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$778
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-106/mo
• Annual: $-1,276/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (12.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#169 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles M. Johnson Elementary (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,051 of 1,108 statewide, top 96%, 392 students, 90% FRL); Brookland Middle (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #334 of 342 statewide, top 98%, 1,074 students, 90% FRL); John Randolph Tucker High (math 59% / reading 79%, grade B, #170 of 319 statewide, top 55%, 1,916 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henrico County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $150k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Dumbarton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?