25 Millstone Rd #25 · Dumbarton, VA 23228

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,132 sqft · Condo public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1962 $133/sqft · 5% below area Est $158k · 5% under $778/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Value priced spacious 3 bed 1.5 bath condo looking for your updates. Single level low maintenance living conveniently located near I64 and Staples Mill interchange. HOA fees cover Water, Sewer, Electric, Gas, HVAC repair/replacement, Hot Water Tank repair/replacement.

Key facts

• $778 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (12.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Dumbarton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#169 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles M. Johnson Elementary (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,051 of 1,108 statewide, top 96%, 392 students, 90% FRL); Brookland Middle (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #334 of 342 statewide, top 98%, 1,074 students, 90% FRL); John Randolph Tucker High (math 59% / reading 79%, grade B, #170 of 319 statewide, top 55%, 1,916 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henrico County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $150k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,211 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,156
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -5.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-36,876
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-63,133
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23228

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,334/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$778
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,284

Max offer price $131,211

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-64	+0% $-106	+5% $-149	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-191	+0% $-106	+5% $-21	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-68	base $-106	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2910 Briar Ln Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	1109	$1,750	$1.58	45d	1	0.56mi
2342 Leah Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	45d	1	0.65mi
4930 Bethlehem Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1242	$2,295	$1.85	3d	1	0.71mi
2351 Wrighthaven Ln Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,830	$2.98	3d	49	0.73mi
2305 Golden Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,750	$1.72	23d	1	0.80mi
2922 Lincoln Ave Henrico, VA	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	19d	1	0.82mi
2922 Lincoln Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	25d	1	0.82mi
4818 Bethlehem Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,450	$1.75	4d	1	0.83mi
2812 Hilliard Rd Henrico, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	672	$1,452	$2.16	3d	5	0.87mi
5000 Libbie Mill East Blvd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,925	$3.05	3d	24	0.88mi
5001 Libbie Mill East Blvd Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	685	$2,207	$3.22	4d	27	0.95mi
7098 Fernwood St Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,825	$1.83	4d	23	0.96mi
7050 Coachman Ln Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,055	$2.13	21d	83	1.09mi
6306 Engel Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,400	$1.74	25d	1	1.25mi
6410 Morningside Dr Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1224	$2,300	$1.88	4d	1	1.28mi
5300 Glenside Dr Henrico, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,799	$2.50	3d	21	1.33mi
5322 Markel Rd Richmond, VA	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,550	$1.53	45d	1	1.35mi
6419 Crescent Pkwy Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,600	$1.84	3d	1	1.39mi
3220 Webb Rd Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	45d	1	1.40mi
4401 Sprenkle Ln Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	822	$2,104	$2.56	3d	42	1.41mi
2031 Maywill St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	853	$2,849	$3.34	4d	34	1.47mi
4008 W Broad St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$2,376	$2.58	3d	24	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $778 · $9,336/yr
• Likely covers: watersewergaselectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Value priced spacious 3 bed 1.5 bath condo looking for your updates. Single level low maintenance living conveniently located near I64 and Staples Mill interchange. HOA fees cover Water, Sewer, Electric, Gas, HVAC repair/replacement, Hot Water Tank repair/replacement.

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $150,000 Active 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Value priced spacious 3 bed 1.5 bath condo looking for your updates. Single level low maintenance living conveniently located near I64 and Staples Mill interchange. HOA fees cover Water, Sewer, Electric, Gas, HVAC repair/replacement, Hot Water Tank repair/replacement.

3. 2019-09-30
   soldstatus $88,000 Closed 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Great condo on walk in level with parking in front. This 3 bedroom condo one and half bath is waiting for you, have a cup of coffee out on your enclosed balcony over looking a walking area. Don't let the hoa put you off it is set up so you can move in and not have any wearies. The hoa covers electric, heating, cooling, gas, water, trash pickup twice a week, club house, on site manager five days a week, pool, yard maintenance, extra storage, and best of all the repair or replacement cost of heating, cooling systems and hot water heater. Its waiting for you to come home. Car is on the blink will ride the bus at the entrance of the Hamlet.

4. 2019-09-30
   soldstatus $88,000

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Great condo on walk in level with parking in front. This 3 bedroom condo one and half bath is waiting for you, have a cup of coffee out on your enclosed balcony over looking a walking area. Don't let the hoa put you off it is set up so you can move in and not have any wearies. The hoa covers electric, heating, cooling, gas, water, trash pickup twice a week, club house, on site manager five days a week, pool, yard maintenance, extra storage, and best of all the repair or replacement cost of heating, cooling systems and hot water heater. Its waiting for you to come home. Car is on the blink will ride the bus at the entrance of the Hamlet.

5. 2019-09-10
   status Pending 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Great condo on walk in level with parking in front. This 3 bedroom condo one and half bath is waiting for you, have a cup of coffee out on your enclosed balcony over looking a walking area. Don't let the hoa put you off it is set up so you can move in and not have any wearies. The hoa covers electric, heating, cooling, gas, water, trash pickup twice a week, club house, on site manager five days a week, pool, yard maintenance, extra storage, and best of all the repair or replacement cost of heating, cooling systems and hot water heater. Its waiting for you to come home. Car is on the blink will ride the bus at the entrance of the Hamlet.

6. 2019-04-10
   listed $93,500 Active 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Great condo on walk in level with parking in front. This 3 bedroom condo one and half bath is waiting for you, have a cup of coffee out on your enclosed balcony over looking a walking area. Don't let the hoa put you off it is set up so you can move in and not have any wearies. The hoa covers electric, heating, cooling, gas, water, trash pickup twice a week, club house, on site manager five days a week, pool, yard maintenance, extra storage, and best of all the repair or replacement cost of heating, cooling systems and hot water heater. Its waiting for you to come home. Car is on the blink will ride the bus at the entrance of the Hamlet.

7. 2012-07-01
   historical
8. 2011-12-03
   listed $95,000
9. 2003-10-14
   soldstatus $139,500
10. 2003-10-14
    soldstatus $139,500
11. 2003-10-14
    soldstatus $139,500
12. 2003-07-22
    listed $139,500
13. 2003-07-22
    listed $139,500
14. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus $66,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,334 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,334 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,334
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − HOA: −$9,336
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$795
• After-tax cash flow: $-481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dumbarton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #5346

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dumbarton, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 36,527
• Household income: $70,260
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, India
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -342.74%
• Current HPI: 349.8903
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+124.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $150,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-30 Sold (MLS) $88,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-09-10 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2019-04-10 Listed $93,500 CVRMLS
• 2012-07-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2011-12-03 Listed $95,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $139,500 Public Records
• 2003-10-14 Sold (MLS) $139,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-10-14 Sold (MLS) $139,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-07-22 Listed $139,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-07-22 Listed $139,500 CVRMLS
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,334 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.