478 Lisbon Ave

Buffalo, NY 14215

$219,900B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,958 sqft · Built 1902 · MultiFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,410/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $618/mo
• Annual: $7,420/yr
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $220k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $2,410/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2873% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.