117 Apple Valley Way Lot 6

East Bernstadt, KY 40729

$189,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,519 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,030/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-706/mo
• Annual: $-8,478/yr
• Cap rate: 2.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.76%
• DSCR: 0.39
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-706 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (45.5% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#432 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Laurel County (town): math 51% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #8 of 165 in KY (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hazel Green Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #47 of 676 statewide, top 8%, 344 students, 80% FRL); North Laurel Middle School (math 48% / reading 59%, grade C+, #13 of 217 statewide, top 6%, 1,003 students, 64% FRL); North Laurel High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 1,300 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Laurel County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 1.9% in East Bernstadt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.