117 Apple Valley Way Lot 6 · East Bernstadt, KY 40729

$189,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,519 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Built 2026 0.61 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a new 2 bedroom raised ranch. This one has 1519 SF on two levels and is under construction now. Nestled on . 61 acre at the end of cul-de-sac and on sewer. Located in Apple Valley just off Hensley Rd near Hazel Green Elementary. This Southern Style looking home has several grand steps centered on the full length front porch. Main level has a good size living room off to the left of entrance and a huge eat in kitchen off to the right. Dark gray stained cabinetry with granite countertops. Luxury vinyl and ceramic tile. Side deck is off the kitchen and overlooks a wooded area. Half Bath and adjoining oversize laundry room. The upper level has 2 huge bedrooms 19.2 x 13.5. Walk in

Key facts

• Wood ceilings
• Under construction
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• RAISED RANCH
• UNDER CONSTRUCTION
• CUL-DE-SAC
• WOODED AREA
• OVERSIZE LAUNDRY ROOM
• WOOD CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: Apple Valley

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; Two stories; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Private lot with views of trees/woods and neighborhood

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Includes appliances (unspecified)
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating (and other); Wall air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Insulated windows; Window screens
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup on main level

🏗️ New construction. The $189,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $220,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-706 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (45.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 1.9% in East Bernstadt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#432 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Laurel County (town): math 51% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #8 of 165 in KY (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hazel Green Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #47 of 676 statewide, top 8%, 344 students, 80% FRL); North Laurel Middle School (math 48% / reading 59%, grade C+, #13 of 217 statewide, top 6%, 1,003 students, 64% FRL); North Laurel High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 1,300 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Laurel County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,025 (45.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.76%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 17.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,000
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -14.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Whitaker Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-0%)	12mo	$189,000	$125	54
22 Bluegrass Rd	0.52mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,603 (+6%)	8mo	$239,000	$149	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $43,099
• Equity at exit: $164,429

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $158,441
• Equity at exit: $323,839

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40729

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $117,772

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-554	-5% $-630	+0% $-706	+5% $-782	+10% $-859
Rent	-10% $-788	-5% $-747	+0% $-706	+5% $-666	+10% $-625
Rate	-1.0pp $-596	-0.5pp $-651	base $-706	+0.5pp $-763	+1.0pp $-821

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    listed $189,000 Active 1043-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$989
• − Management: −$989
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$12,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,057
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Laurel County
• NCES district ID: 2103210
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,577
• Composite: 44.39/100
• National rank: #2814
• State rank: #8 of 165 in KY

Livability — East Bernstadt

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #21210

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,090

Population outlook (Laurel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,602 people
• By 2030: 63,310 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 63,706 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 62,705 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 58,574 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 50,888 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Laurel

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.9) · D 14.5% · R 84.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -58.0pp · 2024: -69.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.9 2020: R+66.7 2016: R+69.1 2012: R+63.6 2008: R+58.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.82%
• Current HPI: 385.9996
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $189,000 ImagineMLS