400 W Forest Ave

Coalinga, CA 93210

$4,780,000C-

78 bd · 60.0 ba · 44,167 sqft · Built 1995 · MultiFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $48,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$25,067
• Tax + insurance: −$5,398
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,159
• Net cashflow: $7,753/mo
• Annual: $93,040/yr
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.95%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $1,338,400

Investor read

• This is a 30 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $4.78M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($93k/yr) — positive. Per door: $258/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($48k rent vs $4.78M).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($4.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $4.64M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $33k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $143k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#946 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Coalinga-Huron Unified (town): math 14% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #384 of 517 in CA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nell Dawson Elementary (453 students, 81% FRL); Coalinga Middle (684 students, 84% FRL); Coalinga High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 1,266 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $3.00M; list at $4.78M implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.9% in Coalinga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $48,378/mo this rent would consume 776% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.