281 Holland Rd

Lucedale, MS 39452

$97,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $130/mo
• Annual: $1,556/yr
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $27,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#110 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• George County School District (rural): math 45% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #30 of 130 in MS (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• George County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.1% in Lucedale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Severe weathering
• Major: interior walls — Worn wallpaper, peeling paint
• Major: flooring — Worn carpet
• Major: bathrooms — Worn fixtures, outdated design