351 Burgess Creek Rd

Wewahitchka, FL 32465

$169,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $-188/mo
• Annual: $-2,258/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (33.0% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#386 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gulf (rural): math 47% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #49 of 73 in FL (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wewahitchka Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 504 students, 55% FRL); Wewahitchka High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 363 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 302 units permitted in Gulf County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gulf County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $170k implies a 1114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Wewahitchka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.