351 Burgess Creek Rd · Wewahitchka, FL 32465

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2008 0.32 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 2008-built two-bedroom, one-bath home is situated on just over a quarter-acre of X (not) flood zone land and has been thoughtfully restored to like-new condition. The living area and both bedrooms feature low-maintenance luxury vinyl flooring, while the kitchen and bath are finished with durable, timeless tile. The kitchen showcases refinished real wood cabinetry, butcher block countertops, and a mobile island that adds versatility and generous workspace. A dedicated dining area is located just off the kitchen, with an adjacent laundry/mechanical room offering exterior access for added convenience. The master bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and jac

Key facts

• Move in ready
• Mobile island
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• THOUGHTFULLY RESTORED
• LOW MAINTENANCE FLOORING
• REFINISHED WOOD CABINETRY
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• MOBILE ISLAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces; Carport; Detached parking; Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Corner lot; Road frontage on a county road

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Wewahitchka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#386 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gulf (rural): math 47% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #49 of 73 in FL (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wewahitchka Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 504 students, 55% FRL); Wewahitchka High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 363 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 302 units permitted in Gulf County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gulf County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $170k implies a 1114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,849 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $80,512
• Equity at exit: $153,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $246,447
• Equity at exit: $330,078

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32465

• Home prices YoY: 25.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,138 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,510/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,377

Max offer price $136,660

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-92	-5% $-140	+0% $-188	+5% $-236	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-233	+0% $-188	+5% $-143	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-145	base $-188	+0.5pp $-232	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $169,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-04-30
   price $169,900
6. 2026-03-01
   price $199,900
7. 2026-01-04
   listed $210,000 Active
8. 2002-12-13
   soldstatus $14,000
9. 1982-08-01
   soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,510
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,093
• − Management: −$1,093
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$5,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,282
• After-tax cash flow: $-976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gulf
• NCES district ID: 1200690
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,047
• Composite: 38.63/100
• National rank: #4154
• State rank: #49 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wewahitchka

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #386
• US rank: #6847

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,940

Population outlook (Gulf County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,677 people
• By 2030: 15,538 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 15,386 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 15,043 · -4.0%
• By 2075: 13,793 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 10,793 · -31.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gulf

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.2) · D 22.6% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -39.3pp · 2024: -54.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.2 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+42.0 2008: R+39.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.74%
• Current HPI: 421.7879
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+870.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $169,900 RAFGC
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $199,900 RAFGC
• 2026-01-04 Listed $210,000 RAFGC
• 2002-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1982-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,510 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.