1318.5 Alaska Hwy

Tok, AK 99780

$149,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-204/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-204/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (14.0% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#47 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alaska Gateway School District (rural): math 10% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #43 of 53 in AK (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tanacross School (math 24% / reading 24%, 10 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 10% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alaska Gateway School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP.
• Southeast Fairbanks County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Snow removal — Snow covering the entire property
• Major: Structural assessment — No visible structures
• Major: Flooring replacement — No visible flooring
• Major: Interior wall and paint repair — No visible interior
• Major: Bathroom renovation — No visible bathrooms
• Major: Kitchen renovation — No visible kitchen