1318.5 Alaska Hwy · Tok, AK 99780

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1986 Poor condition 4.11 ac lot $115/sqft · 22% below area Est $190k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 5 acre parcel with highway frontage, offering easy year round access. This property is ready for your Alaska dream home with a well, septic, electricity and an established driveway in place. Whether you're planning a full-time residence, cabin, or investment property, this land is ready for your vision.

Key facts

• 4.11 acre lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Crib sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to other units; Built in 1986; Log and wood frame construction
• Construction: Log and wood frame construction; Metal roof; Built in 1986
• Exterior features: Private yard; Located in a fire service area; Located in a road service area; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Wood stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-204/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#47 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alaska Gateway School District (rural): math 10% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #43 of 53 in AK (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tanacross School (math 24% / reading 24%, 10 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 10% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alaska Gateway School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Southeast Fairbanks County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $128,192 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,098
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -21.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $16,887
• Equity at exit: $66,997

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $61,681
• Equity at exit: $103,250

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99780

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $146,542

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $34	+0% $-17	+5% $-68	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-68	+0% $-17	+5% $34	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $21	base $-17	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $149,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-04-26
    status Pending 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Beautiful 5 acre parcel with highway frontage, offering easy year round access. This property is ready for your Alaska dream home with a well, septic, electricity and an established driveway in place. Whether you're planning a full-time residence, cabin, or investment property, this land is ready for your vision.

11. 2026-04-24
    listed $59,000 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Beautiful 5 acre parcel with highway frontage, offering easy year round access. This property is ready for your Alaska dream home with a well, septic, electricity and an established driveway in place. Whether you're planning a full-time residence, cabin, or investment property, this land is ready for your vision.

12. 2025-05-04
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$2,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$657
• After-tax cash flow: $454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including snow removal, structural assessment, and interior and exterior renovations. Significant improvements are needed to make it move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Snow removal — Snow covering the entire property
• Major Structural assessment — No visible structures
• Major Flooring replacement — No visible flooring
• Major Interior wall and paint repair — No visible interior
• Major Bathroom renovation — No visible bathrooms
• Major Kitchen renovation — No visible kitchen
• Major Roof assessment — No visible roof structure

Value-add opportunities

• Both Snow removal — Clearing snow will improve accessibility and curb appeal
• Both Structural assessment — Ensuring the property is safe and structurally sound
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing old flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality
• Both Interior wall and paint repair — Repainting and repairing interior walls will enhance the home's appearance
• Both Bathroom renovation — Updating bathrooms will improve the home's functionality and appeal
• Both Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen will improve the home's functionality and appeal
• Both Roof assessment — Ensuring the roof is in good condition will prevent future leaks and maintenance issues

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Snow removal · Snow covering the entire property	Major	$15,000–50,000
Structural assessment · No visible structures	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring replacement · No visible flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior wall and paint repair · No visible interior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom renovation · No visible bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen renovation · No visible kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof assessment · No visible roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Snow removal — Clearing snow will improve accessibility and curb appeal ↑
• Both Structural assessment — Ensuring the property is safe and structurally sound ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing old flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Interior wall and paint repair — Repainting and repairing interior walls will enhance the home's appearance ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Updating bathrooms will improve the home's functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen will improve the home's functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Roof assessment — Ensuring the roof is in good condition will prevent future leaks and maintenance issues ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alaska Gateway School District
• NCES district ID: 0200050
• Math proficiency: 10% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,303
• Composite: 12.73/100
• National rank: #14548
• State rank: #43 of 53 in AK

Livability — Tok

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #15385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tok, AK
• Population (ZIP): 1,790

Population outlook (Southeast Fairbanks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,279 people
• By 2030: 6,022 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 5,658 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 5,521 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 5,938 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 6,752 · +7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Native American 25% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Southeast Fairbanks

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-05-24 Listed $149,000 AKMLS
• 2026-05-13 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2026-04-26 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $59,000 AKMLS
• 2025-05-04 Listed $150,000 AKMLS