15 Old Mill Ct

Spring Lake Heights, NJ 07719

$600,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$760
• HOA: −$269
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$883
• Net cashflow: $-855/mo
• Annual: $-10,256/yr
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.10%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-855 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $449k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (29.9% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($564k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $420k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#235 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wall Township Public School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #145 of 472 in NJ (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $338k; list at $600k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.8% in Spring Lake Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?