15 Old Mill Ct · Spring Lake Heights, NJ 07719

$600,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Condo public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1985 $433/sqft · 26% below area Est $810k · 26% under $269/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this 2-bedroom, 3-bath townhome offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility. Just minutes from Belmar's beautiful beaches, vibrant shopping, dining, and major highways, it's ideal for both full-time living and weekend escapes. Inside, enjoy a spacious layout with thoughtful flow, generous bedrooms, and multiple baths for ease and flexibility. Whether you're entertaining or unwinding after a day by the shore, this home delivers a lifestyle that feels like a retreat.

Key facts

• $269 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-793 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $428k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $428k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.8% in Spring Lake Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#235 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wall Township Public School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #145 of 472 in NJ (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($564k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $338k; list at $600k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $428,109 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.67%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $810,195
• List price: $600,000
• Delta: -25.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-125,032
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-70,612
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07719

• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,116/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$269
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$899
• Net cashflow: $-793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,285

Max offer price $459,894

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Apple Dr Spring Lake, NJ	2.0	2.5	1539	$5,250	$3.41	1d	1	0.54mi
50 Linden Ct Spring Lake, NJ	2.0	2.5	1400	$18,000	$12.86	1d	1	0.61mi
54 Linden Ct Spring Lake, NJ	2.0	2.5	1224	$3,000	$2.45	25d	1	0.62mi
67 Dogwood Dr Spring Lake, NJ	2.0	2.0	1218	$4,400	$3.61	2d	1	0.63mi
51 Wyckham Rd Spring Lake, NJ	2.0	3.5	1394	$14,000	$10.04	1d	1	0.69mi
1719 Beverly Ave Spring Lake, NJ	2.0	1.5	1391	$3,900	$2.80	25d	1	0.84mi
2005 5th Ave Spring Lake, NJ	3.0	3.0	1528	$6,000	$3.93	1d	1	0.92mi
422 Worthington Ave Unit Summer 2026 Spring Lake, NJ	3.0	2.0	1520	$3,500	$2.30	44d	1	0.94mi
520 Brighton Ave Spring Lake, NJ	2.0	2.0	1023	$4,975	$4.86	44d	1	0.94mi
2113 Edgewood Pl Spring Lake, NJ	3.0	2.0	1728	$4,900	$2.84	44d	1	1.06mi
99 River Ct Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	938	$3,400	$3.62	7d	1	1.20mi
506 Monmouth Ave Spring Lake, NJ	3.0	2.5	1680	$6,500	$3.87	1d	1	1.21mi
1223 Briarwood Rd Belmar, NJ	3.0	1.5	1196	$25,000	$20.90	1d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $269 · $3,228/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $600,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $600,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $600,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $600,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $600,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $630,000 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this 2-bedroom, 3-bath townhome offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility. Just minutes from Belmar's beautiful beaches, vibrant shopping, dining, and major highways, it's ideal for both full-time living and weekend escapes. Inside, enjoy a spacious layout with thoughtful flow, generous bedrooms, and multiple baths for ease and flexibility. Whether you're entertaining or unwinding after a day by the shore, this home delivers a lifestyle that feels like a retreat.

15. 2026-04-29
    price $640,000 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this 2-bedroom, 3-bath townhome offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility. Just minutes from Belmar's beautiful beaches, vibrant shopping, dining, and major highways, it's ideal for both full-time living and weekend escapes. Inside, enjoy a spacious layout with thoughtful flow, generous bedrooms, and multiple baths for ease and flexibility. Whether you're entertaining or unwinding after a day by the shore, this home delivers a lifestyle that feels like a retreat.

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $645,000 Active 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this 2-bedroom, 3-bath townhome offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility. Just minutes from Belmar's beautiful beaches, vibrant shopping, dining, and major highways, it's ideal for both full-time living and weekend escapes. Inside, enjoy a spacious layout with thoughtful flow, generous bedrooms, and multiple baths for ease and flexibility. Whether you're entertaining or unwinding after a day by the shore, this home delivers a lifestyle that feels like a retreat.

17. 2026-04-07
    price $645,000 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this 2-bedroom, 3-bath townhome offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility. Just minutes from Belmar's beautiful beaches, vibrant shopping, dining, and major highways, it's ideal for both full-time living and weekend escapes. Inside, enjoy a spacious layout with thoughtful flow, generous bedrooms, and multiple baths for ease and flexibility. Whether you're entertaining or unwinding after a day by the shore, this home delivers a lifestyle that feels like a retreat.

18. 2026-04-07
    historical $465,000 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this 2-bedroom, 3-bath townhome offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility. Just minutes from Belmar's beautiful beaches, vibrant shopping, dining, and major highways, it's ideal for both full-time living and weekend escapes. Inside, enjoy a spacious layout with thoughtful flow, generous bedrooms, and multiple baths for ease and flexibility. Whether you're entertaining or unwinding after a day by the shore, this home delivers a lifestyle that feels like a retreat.

19. 2016-12-21
    soldstatus $338,000
20. 2016-12-07
    soldstatus $338,000 Sold 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Beautifully refinished town home in secluded Old Mill Court Estates. Close proximity to shopping and the Shore enhance the desirability of this move-in-ready home. New kitchen cabinets with all plywood construction, granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances highlight the Eat-in kitchen. 2nd bedroom features custom built-in closet and cabinets. New flooring throughout includes genuine oak hardwood in the living room, dining room and hallways plus new carpet in the bedrooms. The entire home has been freshly painted and awaits your decorative touches.

21. 2016-09-28
    status Pending 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Beautifully refinished town home in secluded Old Mill Court Estates. Close proximity to shopping and the Shore enhance the desirability of this move-in-ready home. New kitchen cabinets with all plywood construction, granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances highlight the Eat-in kitchen. 2nd bedroom features custom built-in closet and cabinets. New flooring throughout includes genuine oak hardwood in the living room, dining room and hallways plus new carpet in the bedrooms. The entire home has been freshly painted and awaits your decorative touches.

22. 2016-08-24
    listed $349,900 Active 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Beautifully refinished town home in secluded Old Mill Court Estates. Close proximity to shopping and the Shore enhance the desirability of this move-in-ready home. New kitchen cabinets with all plywood construction, granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances highlight the Eat-in kitchen. 2nd bedroom features custom built-in closet and cabinets. New flooring throughout includes genuine oak hardwood in the living room, dining room and hallways plus new carpet in the bedrooms. The entire home has been freshly painted and awaits your decorative touches.

23. 2013-04-23
    soldstatus $250,000
24. 2013-01-21
    listed $259,900
25. 2012-08-24
    soldstatus $240,000
26. 2012-06-23
    listed $265,000
27. 2005-12-19
    soldstatus $365,000
28. 1998-03-23
    soldstatus $138,500
29. 1998-03-10
    soldstatus $138,500
30. 1997-12-09
    historical
31. 1997-06-27
    listed $142,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,116 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,528 · $877/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,412/yr (+$368/mo · 72.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$6,116
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,110
• − Management: −$4,110
• − HOA: −$3,228
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$20,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,861
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wall Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416890
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $92,842
• Composite: 44.31/100
• National rank: #2831
• State rank: #145 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Spring Lake Heights

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #6442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,138
• Household income: $119,828
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 513.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Guatemala, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -537.99%
• Current HPI: 379.3961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.08%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+343.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $630,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $640,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $645,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $645,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $465,000 MOMLS
• 2016-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $338,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-07 Sold (MLS) $338,000 MOMLS
• 2016-09-28 Pending — MOMLS
• 2016-08-24 Listed $349,900 MOMLS
• 2013-04-23 Sold (MLS) $250,000 MOMLS
• 2013-01-21 Listed $259,900 MOMLS
• 2012-08-24 Sold (MLS) $240,000 MOMLS
• 2012-06-23 Listed $265,000 MOMLS
• 2005-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $138,500 Public Records
• 1998-03-10 Sold (MLS) $138,500 MOMLS
• 1997-12-09 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1997-06-27 Listed $142,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,116 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.