28 Road 3066

Spencerville, NM 87410

$199,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,793 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,665/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $53/mo
• Annual: $636/yr
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($636/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#119 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lydia Rippey Elementary (math 34% / reading 95%, grade B+, #10 of 68 statewide, top 13%, 351 students, 100% FRL); C.V. Koogler Middle (math 10% / reading 54%, grade F, #11 of 27 statewide, top 38%, 533 students, 100% FRL); Aztec High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #74 of 110 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 48% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.