28 Road 3066 · Spencerville, NM 87410

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,793 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1995 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

''Cottonwood Creek'' Opportunity is knocking, and it's priced for action!!! This nearly 1,800 sq ft doublewide on a permanent foundation sits on 1.5 irrigated acres and offers serious upside for investors or buyers willing to roll up their sleeves and build equity. Being sold without repairs, this property is positioned for a fast sale and ready for your vision. Located just off Old Aztec Highway, you're 10 minutes from Farmington, NM and under an hour to Durango, CO. The fully fenced and gated acreage features mature shade trees, a quiet end-of-drive setting with no through traffic, and plenty of room for expansion, animals, or toys. Irrigation details coming soon. Inside, the home has solid bones and key upgrades already in place, including an updated ProPanel roof. The split floorplan offers functionality and space, with a large living area, formal dining with chandelier, and an additional sitting room featuring built-in shelving and cabinetry. The primary suite includes dual sinks, a spacious shower, and an oversized closet, while bedrooms two and three share a full bath. There's also a large office or flex space, ideal for remote work, a fourth bedroom conversion, or added value potential. The kitchen includes a pantry, breakfast bar, gas stove, refrigerator, and skylights for natural light. A mudroom/laundry area leads to a screened-in patio, while the covered front porch captures both sunrise and sunset views. Outside, you'll find a large RV carport and ample space to customize the property to your needs. Whether you're looking for your next investment, a value-add project, or a live-in renovation opportunity, this property checks the boxes: location, land, and upside.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Gated acreage
• Irrigated acres

Tags

• IRRIGATED ACRES
• FULLY FENCED
• GATED ACREAGE
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• QUIET END-OF-DRIVE SETTING
• UPDATED PROPANEL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($636/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#119 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lydia Rippey Elementary (math 34% / reading 95%, grade B+, #10 of 68 statewide, top 13%, 351 students, 100% FRL); C.V. Koogler Middle (math 10% / reading 54%, grade F, #11 of 27 statewide, top 38%, 533 students, 100% FRL); Aztec High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #74 of 110 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 48% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $166,549 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,065
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,158
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87410

• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $110	+0% $53	+5% $-4	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-13	+0% $53	+5% $119	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $104	base $53	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1704 chars)

   ''Cottonwood Creek'' Opportunity is knocking, and it's priced for action!!! This nearly 1,800 sq ft doublewide on a permanent foundation sits on 1.5 irrigated acres and offers serious upside for investors or buyers willing to roll up their sleeves and build equity. Being sold without repairs, this property is positioned for a fast sale and ready for your vision. Located just off Old Aztec Highway, you're 10 minutes from Farmington, NM and under an hour to Durango, CO. The fully fenced and gated acreage features mature shade trees, a quiet end-of-drive setting with no through traffic, and plenty of room for expansion, animals, or toys. Irrigation details coming soon. Inside, the home has solid bones and key upgrades already in place, including an updated ProPanel roof. The split floorplan offers functionality and space, with a large living area, formal dining with chandelier, and an additional sitting room featuring built-in shelving and cabinetry. The primary suite includes dual sinks, a spacious shower, and an oversized closet, while bedrooms two and three share a full bath. There's also a large office or flex space, ideal for remote work, a fourth bedroom conversion, or added value potential. The kitchen includes a pantry, breakfast bar, gas stove, refrigerator, and skylights for natural light. A mudroom/laundry area leads to a screened-in patio, while the covered front porch captures both sunrise and sunset views. Outside, you'll find a large RV carport and ample space to customize the property to your needs. Whether you're looking for your next investment, a value-add project, or a live-in renovation opportunity, this property checks the boxes: location, land, and upside.

2. 2026-04-03
   listed $199,900 Active 1704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1704 chars)

   ''Cottonwood Creek'' Opportunity is knocking, and it's priced for action!!! This nearly 1,800 sq ft doublewide on a permanent foundation sits on 1.5 irrigated acres and offers serious upside for investors or buyers willing to roll up their sleeves and build equity. Being sold without repairs, this property is positioned for a fast sale and ready for your vision. Located just off Old Aztec Highway, you're 10 minutes from Farmington, NM and under an hour to Durango, CO. The fully fenced and gated acreage features mature shade trees, a quiet end-of-drive setting with no through traffic, and plenty of room for expansion, animals, or toys. Irrigation details coming soon. Inside, the home has solid bones and key upgrades already in place, including an updated ProPanel roof. The split floorplan offers functionality and space, with a large living area, formal dining with chandelier, and an additional sitting room featuring built-in shelving and cabinetry. The primary suite includes dual sinks, a spacious shower, and an oversized closet, while bedrooms two and three share a full bath. There's also a large office or flex space, ideal for remote work, a fourth bedroom conversion, or added value potential. The kitchen includes a pantry, breakfast bar, gas stove, refrigerator, and skylights for natural light. A mudroom/laundry area leads to a screened-in patio, while the covered front porch captures both sunrise and sunset views. Outside, you'll find a large RV carport and ample space to customize the property to your needs. Whether you're looking for your next investment, a value-add project, or a live-in renovation opportunity, this property checks the boxes: location, land, and upside.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,574 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$25/yr (+$2/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $1,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aztec Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500150
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 33.00%
• Median HH income: $50,522
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5328
• State rank: #12 of 29 in NM

Livability — Spencerville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #19646

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spencerville, NM
• Population (ZIP): 14,372

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Native American 12% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.31%
• Current HPI: 156.6284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — SJCMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $199,900 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,574 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.