7717 Poppy Petal Loop

Austin, TX 78617

$264,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,678 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax + insurance: −$781
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-514/mo
• Annual: $-6,173/yr
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.35%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $73,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?