2651 W Lawrence Ave Unit 2B

Springfield, IL 62704-1163

$58,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 878 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$218
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $141/mo
• Annual: $1,687/yr
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $16,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $58k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($961 rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $56k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($401 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $58k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — Older style, dated appearance
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — Standard, dated design