2651 W Lawrence Ave Unit 2B · Springfield, IL 62704-1163

$58,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 878 sqft · Condo · 34 Days on market

Built 1972 Fair condition $218/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom west side condo on Garden Level. New laminate flooring throughout in 2019. Eat-in kitchen with new dishwasher and countertops in 2025. Easy west side location and close to everything!

Key facts

• $218 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $58k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($961 rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($401 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $58k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $56,260 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $16,091
• Equity at exit: $26,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $44,944
• Equity at exit: $40,191

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62704-1163

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $161	+0% $141	+5% $121	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $103	+0% $141	+5% $179	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $155	base $141	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
424 S Durkin Dr Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	885	$925	$1.05	22d	1	0.10mi
924 Clocktower Dr Unit 4 Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	1000	$800	$0.80	45d	1	0.25mi
1644 W Adams St Unit 1 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	45d	1	1.19mi
1539 W Monroe St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	820	$2,000	$2.44	22d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $58,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $58,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $58,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $58,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $58,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $58,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $58,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $58,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $58,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-05-08
    status Active 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom west side condo on Garden Level. New laminate flooring throughout in 2019. Eat-in kitchen with new dishwasher and countertops in 2025. Easy west side location and close to everything!

12. 2026-05-08
    price $62,500 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom west side condo on Garden Level. New laminate flooring throughout in 2019. Eat-in kitchen with new dishwasher and countertops in 2025. Easy west side location and close to everything!

13. 2026-03-23
    status Pending 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom west side condo on Garden Level. New laminate flooring throughout in 2019. Eat-in kitchen with new dishwasher and countertops in 2025. Easy west side location and close to everything!

14. 2026-03-22
    listed $53,500 Active 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom west side condo on Garden Level. New laminate flooring throughout in 2019. Eat-in kitchen with new dishwasher and countertops in 2025. Easy west side location and close to everything!

15. 2026-03-18
    historical $53,500 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom west side condo on Garden Level. New laminate flooring throughout in 2019. Eat-in kitchen with new dishwasher and countertops in 2025. Easy west side location and close to everything!

16. 2003-12-01
    soldstatus $38,500 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Lovely Garden Level Condo In Prestine Condition! Laundry Is Located Just Across The Hall! Fresh Interior Paint. Newer Carpet. Upgraded Appliances And Updated Kitched And Bath. This Is A Must See.

17. 2003-11-13
    listed $39,900 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Lovely Garden Level Condo In Prestine Condition! Laundry Is Located Just Across The Hall! Fresh Interior Paint. Newer Carpet. Upgraded Appliances And Updated Kitched And Bath. This Is A Must See.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$923
• − Management: −$923
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$235
• After-tax cash flow: $1,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This two-bedroom condo requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and functionality, with a focus on exterior siding, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom fixtures.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Moderate kitchen cabinets — Older style, dated appearance
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — Standard, dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal
• Resale Upgrade kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets increase appeal and functionality
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Older style, dated appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · Standard, dated design	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$21,000–80,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets increase appeal and functionality ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+56.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $62,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Listed $53,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Coming Soon $53,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-01 Sold (MLS) $38,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-13 Listed $39,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid