2654 Shelly Dr

Columbus, OH 43207

$136,900B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,826/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $435/mo
• Annual: $5,222/yr
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.62%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $38,332

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $946 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in OH, #1,491 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Columbus City School District (urban): math 15% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #626 of 656 in OH (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,139 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5,940 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $137k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.8% in Columbus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.