2654 Shelly Dr · Columbus, OH 43207

$136,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1958 0.32 ac lot $117/sqft · 27% below area Est $188k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SEE AGENT REMARKS!!! BANK OWNED SOLD ''AS IS'' GREAT OPPUTUNITY. GREAT LOCATION, HUGE BACK YARD.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1958; One story; No common walls
• Construction: 1175 total building area
• Exterior features: Slab foundation

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Storm all windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.8% in Columbus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in OH, #1,491 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Columbus City School District (urban): math 15% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #626 of 656 in OH (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,139 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5,940 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $946 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $137k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,846 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.62%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,769
• List price: $136,900
• Delta: -27.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2811 Dolby Dr	0.17mi	4/1.0	1,177 (+0%)	13mo	$214,900	$183	81
62 Southgate Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,237 (+5%)	1mo	$171,500	$139	67
139 Cullman Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (+4%)	11mo	$210,000	$172	64
78 Phelps Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,247 (+6%)	13mo	$237,000	$190	62
238 Delray Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,112 (-5%)	4mo	$133,500	$120	58
125 Betz Rd	0.36mi	4/1.0	1,066 (-9%)	12mo	$170,000	$159	58
145 Ziegler Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,053 (-10%)	7mo	$205,000	$195	53
228 Currier Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,292 (+10%)	2mo	$195,000	$151	47
300 Loxley Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+9%)	5mo	$149,000	$116	46
273 E Alcott Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-12%)	10mo	$220,000	$212	45
221 Southard Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,014 (-14%)	9mo	$181,500	$179	44
327 Ziegler Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,280 (+9%)	10mo	$165,000	$129	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,357
• Equity at exit: $20,412

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $34,726
• Equity at exit: $11,837

Cash invested: $38,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43207

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,784/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $136,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,225
• Closing costs: $4,107
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2997 S High St Columbus, OH	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1151	$1,922	$1.67	1d	27	0.41mi
2866 Hillgate Rd Columbus, OH	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,693	$1.63	23d	1	0.56mi
55 Fornof Rd Columbus, OH	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,160	$2.34	1d	1	0.58mi
257 Benfield Ave Unit NA Columbus, OH	3.0	1.0	1094	$1,400	$1.28	7d	1	0.60mi
76-78 E Barthman Ave Columbus, OH	3.0	1.0	1206	$1,500	$1.24	23d	1	1.29mi
820 Hilock Rd Columbus, OH	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,640	$1.37	43d	1	1.39mi
838 Lock Ave Columbus, OH	3.0	1.0	988	$1,578	$1.60	2d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $136,900 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $136,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $136,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $136,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   price $136,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   listed $160,000 Active 800-char remark
8. 2026-04-25
   historical $160,000 800-char remark
9. 2008-10-06
   soldstatus $31,104 96-char remark

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   SEE AGENT REMARKS!!! BANK OWNED SOLD ''AS IS'' GREAT OPPUTUNITY. GREAT LOCATION, HUGE BACK YARD.

10. 2008-09-17
    historical 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    SEE AGENT REMARKS!!! BANK OWNED SOLD ''AS IS'' GREAT OPPUTUNITY. GREAT LOCATION, HUGE BACK YARD.

11. 2008-07-18
    listed $35,900 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    SEE AGENT REMARKS!!! BANK OWNED SOLD ''AS IS'' GREAT OPPUTUNITY. GREAT LOCATION, HUGE BACK YARD.

12. 2000-11-03
    soldstatus $64,500
13. 2000-11-03
    soldstatus $64,500
14. 1998-11-16
    historical
15. 1998-05-18
    listed $69,900
16. 1996-10-10
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,784 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,784 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,669
• − Property taxes: −$2,784
• − Insurance: −$684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$3,983
• Taxable income: $3,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$788
• After-tax cash flow: $4,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbus City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904380
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,483
• Composite: 17.19/100
• National rank: #9105
• State rank: #626 of 656 in OH

Livability — Columbus

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1491

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbus, OH
• County: Franklin County · 1,351,780 people
• City population: 612,189
• Metro: Columbus, OH
• Population (ZIP): 47,272
• Household income: $63,310
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1679.0

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,456,139 people
• By 2030: 1,556,890 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 1,757,349 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 1,950,539 · +34.0%
• By 2075: 2,376,171 · +63.2%
• By 2100: 2,636,796 · +81.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 63.7% · R 35.3% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: 20.7pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+21.7 2008: D+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -244.33%
• Current HPI: 268.3028
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Columbus, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+136.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — CBRMLS
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $136,900 CBRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $160,000 CBRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Coming Soon $160,000 CBRMLS
• 2008-10-06 Sold (MLS) $31,104 CBRMLS
• 2008-09-17 Listing Removed — CBRMLS
• 2008-07-18 Listed $35,900 CBRMLS
• 2000-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 2000-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 1998-11-16 Listing Removed — CBRMLS
• 1998-05-18 Listed $69,900 CBRMLS
• 1996-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,784 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.