742 Dogwood Dr

Montgomeryville, PA 19454

$249,800C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,310
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $674/mo
• Annual: $8,082/yr
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.56%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $69,944

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $674 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#327 in PA, #2,871 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• North Penn SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #76 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery El Sch (math 58% / reading 74%, grade B+, #238 of 1,518 statewide, top 16%, 643 students, 17% FRL); Pennbrook Ms (math 43% / reading 70%, grade B, #66 of 512 statewide, top 13%, 807 students, 25% FRL); North Penn Shs (math 78% / reading 50%, grade B-, #67 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 3,184 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.9% in Montgomeryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.