709 Elm Cir

Van Alstyne, TX 75495

$268,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,621 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax + insurance: −$640
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-366/mo
• Annual: $-4,394/yr
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.86%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $75,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (20.7% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#134 in TX, #3,950 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Van Alstyne ISD (rural): math 62% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #51 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bob And Lola Sanford El (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 598 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 624 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.7% in Van Alstyne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.