709 Elm Cir · Van Alstyne, TX 75495

$268,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,621 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1995 10,019 sqft lot $165/sqft · 20% below area Est $334k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very Nice Brick home in nice neighborhood, quite, great school district, Small town atmosphere. Seller is offering carpet allowance. Wood burning fireplace for those cold winter nights.

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Large laundry room

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• SPACIOUS FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property on less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.23 acre); Cul-de-sac parcel; Building restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Built in 1995
• Construction: Brick and siding exterior; Composition roof; Preowned
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio/porch; Fenced yard; Cul-de-sac lot; Few trees; Interior lot; Grassed vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) with dual sinks, garden tub, and walk-in closet; Bedroom (level 1) with walk-in closet; Bedroom (level 1) with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Attic fan; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Tile countertops; One living area; One dining area; Fireplace (gas)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.7% in Van Alstyne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#134 in TX, #3,950 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Van Alstyne ISD (rural): math 62% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #51 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bob And Lola Sanford El (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 598 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 624 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,314 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.86%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,343
• List price: $268,000
• Delta: -19.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
905 Ravenwood Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,590 (-2%)	2mo	$280,000	$176	85
709 Billups Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-0%)	11mo	$320,000	$198	84
807 Birch Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+8%)	2mo	$330,000	$188	82
810 Hix Cir	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,775 (+10%)	13mo	$350,000	$197	68
937 Billups Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+6%)	14mo	$295,000	$172	68
2205 Maple Ridge Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,826 (+13%)	2mo	$350,000	$192	57
279 Kincaid St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+8%)	7mo	$299,900	$172	54
45 Kepler Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+4%)	11mo	$379,000	$225	53
940 Billups Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,861 (+15%)	14mo	$345,000	$185	48
558 Nunnalee Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-14%)	13mo	$240,000	$171	37
627 N Preston Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,857 (+15%)	5mo	$342,500	$184	37
689 N Preston Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-13%)	12mo	$299,000	$212	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-66,599
• Equity at exit: $39,960

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-87,412
• Equity at exit: $23,172

Cash invested: $75,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75495

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax from tax record: −$528 /mo · $6,335/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,589

Max offer price $203,314

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,000
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
712 Billups Cir Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,950	$1.31	11d	1	0.10mi
920 Ravenwood Ln Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,895	$1.21	18d	1	0.22mi
933 Ravenwood Ln Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,099	$1.10	43d	1	0.26mi
1005 Stanridge Ln Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.0	1942	$2,250	$1.16	12d	1	0.33mi
417 Vawter Dr Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.0	1816	$2,199	$1.21	18d	1	0.50mi
525 Gilcrease Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,895	$1.57	43d	1	0.69mi
524 Hickory Ridge Dr Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.0	2213	$2,300	$1.04	18d	1	0.82mi
523 N Preston Ave Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,150	$1.15	16d	1	0.82mi
523 N Preston Ave Unit 523 Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,150	$1.13	16d	1	0.82mi
523 N Preston Ave Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,150	$1.15	4d	1	0.82mi
509 Brook View Dr Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,350	$1.31	12d	1	0.89mi
182 Douglas Ln Van Alstyne, TX	2.0	2.0	1212	$1,800	$1.49	22d	1	0.92mi
470 E Marshall St Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,000	$1.13	4d	1	1.06mi
266 W Fulton St Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1547	$1,675	$1.08	7d	1	1.09mi
313 Hopson St Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	3.0	2178	$2,350	$1.08	43d	1	1.11mi
320 Glenwick Ln Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$2,090	$1.15	43d	1	1.11mi
321 Hopson St Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.5	1619	$2,100	$1.30	5d	1	1.13mi
135 E Fulton St Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.0	2232	$2,195	$0.98	11d	1	1.13mi
412 Glenwick Ln Van Alstyne, TX	4.0	2.5	1861	$2,200	$1.18	7d	1	1.18mi
1185 E Jefferson St Van Alstyne, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,000	$1.38	20d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $268,000 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,000 Active Option Contract 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $268,000 Active Option Contract 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $268,000 Active Option Contract 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $268,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $268,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $268,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $268,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $268,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    historical Active Option Contract 465-char remark
11. 2026-05-07
    status Active 465-char remark
12. 2026-04-28
    historical Active Option Contract 465-char remark
13. 2026-04-23
    listed $270,000 Active 465-char remark
14. 2019-12-19
    soldstatus
15. 2019-12-17
    soldstatus Sold 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Very Nice Brick home in nice neighborhood, quite, great school district, Small town atmosphere. Seller is offering carpet allowance. Wood burning fireplace for those cold winter nights.

16. 2019-11-27
    status Pending 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Very Nice Brick home in nice neighborhood, quite, great school district, Small town atmosphere. Seller is offering carpet allowance. Wood burning fireplace for those cold winter nights.

17. 2019-10-25
    listed $182,500 Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Very Nice Brick home in nice neighborhood, quite, great school district, Small town atmosphere. Seller is offering carpet allowance. Wood burning fireplace for those cold winter nights.

18. 2009-12-22
    soldstatus
19. 2009-12-21
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great property is vacant & move-in ready. Eligible for USDA $0 down financing wac. Kitchen has Kenmore range, wood edge counters, European style cabinets, pantry, track lighting and more. Wood-burning fireplace, vaulted ceiling in family room with windows on south side. Master bath has jet tub, dbl vanities, sep shower, built-ins in walk-in closet. Fresh paint & new carpets, certile in entry & master bath. Storage building and large backyard.

20. 2009-12-08
    historical

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great property is vacant & move-in ready. Eligible for USDA $0 down financing wac. Kitchen has Kenmore range, wood edge counters, European style cabinets, pantry, track lighting and more. Wood-burning fireplace, vaulted ceiling in family room with windows on south side. Master bath has jet tub, dbl vanities, sep shower, built-ins in walk-in closet. Fresh paint & new carpets, certile in entry & master bath. Storage building and large backyard.

21. 2009-09-09
    listed $129,500

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great property is vacant & move-in ready. Eligible for USDA $0 down financing wac. Kitchen has Kenmore range, wood edge counters, European style cabinets, pantry, track lighting and more. Wood-burning fireplace, vaulted ceiling in family room with windows on south side. Master bath has jet tub, dbl vanities, sep shower, built-ins in walk-in closet. Fresh paint & new carpets, certile in entry & master bath. Storage building and large backyard.

22. 1995-02-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,335 · $528/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,335 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$6,335
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$9,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,175
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Alstyne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843890
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $68,451
• Composite: 53.28/100
• National rank: #1491
• State rank: #51 of 826 in TX

Livability — Van Alstyne

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #3950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Van Alstyne, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 11,120
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,120
• Household income: $111,563
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.06%
• Current HPI: 274.6361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+106.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $268,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2019-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-11-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-10-25 Listed $182,500 NTREIS
• 2009-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-12-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-12-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-09-09 Listed $129,500 NTREIS
• 1995-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,335 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.