300 Walnut St

Urbana, MO 65767

$129,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Built 1949 · Other · Pending · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $82/mo
• Annual: $990/yr
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.72%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($990/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#629 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickory County R-I (rural): math 65% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #8 of 324 in MO (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Skyline Elem. (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #4 of 1,115 statewide, top 0%, 306 students, 45% FRL); Skyline Middle (math 57% / reading 59%, grade B, #26 of 391 statewide, top 7%, 206 students, 40% FRL); Skyline High (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #10 of 521 statewide, top 2%, 215 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Urbana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.