300 Walnut St · Urbana, MO 65767

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Other public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1949 0.56 ac lot $109/sqft · 5% above area Est $124k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a fast sell on this 3 bedroom home in town. Large lot, full unfinished basement, large front porch. Newer roof, heat and air, hotwater heater, plex and wiring. Don't miss out on this quick sale.

Key facts

• Large front porch
• Newer roof
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• NEWER ROOF
• HEAT AND AIR
• HOTWATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($990/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Urbana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#629 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickory County R-I (rural): math 65% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #8 of 324 in MO (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Skyline Elem. (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #4 of 1,115 statewide, top 0%, 306 students, 45% FRL); Skyline Middle (math 57% / reading 59%, grade B, #26 of 391 statewide, top 7%, 206 students, 40% FRL); Skyline High (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #10 of 521 statewide, top 2%, 215 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $107,689 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.72%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,640
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 5.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $45,403
• Equity at exit: $84,541

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $128,650
• Equity at exit: $155,861

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65767

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $395/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $972

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $119	+0% $82	+5% $46	+10% $9
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $40	+0% $82	+5% $125	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $116	base $82	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $129,900 Pending 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $129,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-02-05
   listed $129,900 Active 206-char remark

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   Looking for a fast sell on this 3 bedroom home in town. Large lot, full unfinished basement, large front porch. Newer roof, heat and air, hotwater heater, plex and wiring. Don't miss out on this quick sale.

8. 2024-10-03
   historical
9. 2024-08-21
   listed $119,900 Active
10. 2023-03-20
    soldstatus
11. 2023-01-13
    soldstatus
12. 2022-12-13
    soldstatus
13. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus
14. 2021-11-16
    soldstatus
15. 2021-11-15
    soldstatus
16. 2020-06-01
    listed $52,900
17. 2020-05-28
    soldstatus
18. 2020-02-10
    listed $29,900
19. 2007-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $395 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$865/yr (+$72/mo · 219.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$395
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,034
• − Management: −$1,034
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$299
• After-tax cash flow: $1,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickory County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2914320
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,125
• Composite: 54.03/100
• National rank: #1393
• State rank: #8 of 324 in MO

Livability — Urbana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #629
• US rank: #21576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbana, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,860

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,419 people
• By 2030: 14,668 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,045 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 11,341 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 8,096 · -47.5%
• By 2100: 5,656 · -63.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Iranian 9% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.3% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Current HPI: 256.3794
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+334.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $129,900 SOMO
• 2024-10-03 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-21 Listed $119,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-15 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-06-01 Listed $52,900 SOMO
• 2020-05-28 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-02-10 Listed $29,900 SOMO
• 2007-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $395 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.