104 Mountain St W

Cavalier, ND 58220

$120,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Built — · Other · Active · 209 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,186/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $192/mo
• Annual: $2,303/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.85%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (1.1% below list).
• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#83 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Cavalier 6 (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #12 of 53 in ND (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pembina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pembina County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.