104 Mountain St W · Cavalier, ND 58220

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Other · 208 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Newer shingles
• Alley access
• Updated siding

Tags

• UPDATED SIDING
• NEWER SHINGLES
• SPACIOUS ENTRY
• VACANT CORNER LOT
• ALLEY ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half story
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 11 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: Two 3/4 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Cooling system present
• Interior features: Window treatments; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#83 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Cavalier 6 (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #12 of 53 in ND (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pembina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Pembina County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.85%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $45,882
• Equity at exit: $74,421

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $125,579
• Equity at exit: $134,091

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58220

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $943

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $226	+0% $192	+5% $158	+10% $124
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $145	+0% $192	+5% $239	+10% $286
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $222	base $192	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-01-22
    price $120,000
17. 2025-11-21
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$385/yr (+$32/mo · 48.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $2,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cavalier 6
• NCES district ID: 3800018
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,577
• Composite: 42.29/100
• National rank: #3264
• State rank: #12 of 53 in ND

Livability — Cavalier

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #7850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cavalier, ND
• Population (ZIP): 2,215

Population outlook (Pembina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,414 people
• By 2030: 6,060 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 5,383 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 4,925 · -23.2%
• By 2075: 5,025 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 6,293 · -1.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 24% Lithuanian 8% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pembina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.3) · D 22.8% · R 76.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.3 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+49.2 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.87%
• Current HPI: 137.4829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $120,000 GFAAR
• 2025-11-21 Listed $125,000 GFAAR

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $791 · +17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.