10145 Earl Dr

Castle Point, MO 63136

$49,900A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 827 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,244/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $622/mo
• Annual: $7,468/yr
• Cap rate: 21.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.45%
• DSCR: 3.38
• 1% rule: 2.49%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 13.0% in Castle Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.