10145 Earl Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 827 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1953 6,499 sqft lot $60/sqft · 23% below area Est $64k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bed, 1-bath ranch is a turnkey addition to your rental portfolio. Currently leased with professional property management already in place, it offers immediate cash flow and minimal hassle. The home features 827 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Centrally located with easy access to 367/270. Don’t miss this opportunity for dependable returns in a value-driven submarket! Showings only with an accepted offer. This property is being sold "as-is" and is agent-owned. Information pulled from various sources. Buyer to verify all MLS data.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 13.0% in Castle Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.45%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,398
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -22.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10117 Royal Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0	864 (+4%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	86
10117 Duke Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	864 (+4%)	4mo	$119,900	$139	85
10236 Monarch Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	850 (+3%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	81
10365 Lord Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	864 (+4%)	4mo	$87,000	$101	75
10348 Earl Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	770 (-7%)	4mo	$35,000	$45	72
10429 Earl Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	770 (-7%)	1mo	$35,000	$45	65
10501 Baron Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	888 (+7%)	2mo	$99,000	$111	63
10228 Viscount Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	925 (+12%)	2mo	$155,000	$168	61
10512 Count Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	888 (+7%)	4mo	$105,000	$118	60
1521 Corinth Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	912 (+10%)	6mo	$80,000	$88	53
10067 Prince Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	945 (+14%)	3mo	$25,000	$26	52
10432 Royal Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	945 (+14%)	5mo	$99,900	$106	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $50,308
• Equity at exit: $24,690

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.95×
• Total profit: $125,039
• Equity at exit: $39,903

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $940/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $457

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	44d	1	0.11mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	0.12mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	44d	1	0.13mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	0.14mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	2d	1	0.30mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.30mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	0.30mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	0.33mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	22d	1	0.35mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	24d	1	0.40mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	24d	1	0.41mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	8d	1	0.48mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	0.49mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	24d	1	0.55mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	22d	1	0.59mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	15d	1	0.63mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	44d	1	0.66mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.67mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	8d	1	0.76mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	24d	1	0.81mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	44d	1	0.81mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	11d	1	0.88mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	8d	1	0.88mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	15d	1	0.90mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	18d	1	0.90mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	0.92mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	24d	1	0.96mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	0.96mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	24d	1	0.99mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	15d	1	1.01mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	22d	1	1.03mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	16d	1	1.06mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	1.10mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	8d	1	1.10mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	44d	1	1.11mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	44d	1	1.13mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	44d	1	1.17mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	44d	1	1.19mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	4d	1	1.21mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $49,900 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   This 3-bed, 1-bath ranch is a turnkey addition to your rental portfolio. Currently leased with professional property management already in place, it offers immediate cash flow and minimal hassle. The home features 827 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Centrally located with easy access to 367/270. Don’t miss this opportunity for dependable returns in a value-driven submarket! Showings only with an accepted offer. This property is being sold "as-is" and is agent-owned. Information pulled from various sources. Buyer to verify all MLS data.

2. 2026-05-01
   status Active 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   This 3-bed, 1-bath ranch is a turnkey addition to your rental portfolio. Currently leased with professional property management already in place, it offers immediate cash flow and minimal hassle. The home features 827 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Centrally located with easy access to 367/270. Don’t miss this opportunity for dependable returns in a value-driven submarket! Showings only with an accepted offer. This property is being sold "as-is" and is agent-owned. Information pulled from various sources. Buyer to verify all MLS data.

3. 2026-04-15
   status Pending 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   This 3-bed, 1-bath ranch is a turnkey addition to your rental portfolio. Currently leased with professional property management already in place, it offers immediate cash flow and minimal hassle. The home features 827 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Centrally located with easy access to 367/270. Don’t miss this opportunity for dependable returns in a value-driven submarket! Showings only with an accepted offer. This property is being sold "as-is" and is agent-owned. Information pulled from various sources. Buyer to verify all MLS data.

4. 2026-04-15
   listed $54,900 Active 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   This 3-bed, 1-bath ranch is a turnkey addition to your rental portfolio. Currently leased with professional property management already in place, it offers immediate cash flow and minimal hassle. The home features 827 sq ft and a detached 1-car garage. Centrally located with easy access to 367/270. Don’t miss this opportunity for dependable returns in a value-driven submarket! Showings only with an accepted offer. This property is being sold "as-is" and is agent-owned. Information pulled from various sources. Buyer to verify all MLS data.

5. 2026-03-19
   price $54,900
6. 2026-03-06
   listed $59,900 Active
7. 2026-02-26
   price $59,900
8. 2025-12-10
   price $69,900
9. 2025-11-21
   status Active
10. 2025-08-12
    status Pending
11. 2025-07-31
    listed $79,900 Active
12. 2024-01-29
    historical $950
13. 2024-01-26
    listed $950
14. 2021-09-01
    soldstatus $115,087
15. 2021-05-12
    soldstatus $25,000
16. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $10,000
17. 1991-05-28
    soldstatus
18. 1991-02-27
    soldstatus
19. 1991-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$940
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,706
• After-tax cash flow: $5,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+399.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $54,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $54,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-29 Rental Removed $950 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-26 Listed for Rent $950 APPFOLIO
• 2021-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $115,087 Public Records
• 2021-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1991-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $940 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.