338 Main St Unit 8H

San Francisco, CA 94105

$945,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · Built 2016 · Condo · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,956
• Tax + insurance: −$1,448
• HOA: −$1,360
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,046
• Net cashflow: $-3,830/mo
• Annual: $-45,962/yr
• Cap rate: 1.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.37%
• DSCR: 0.23
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $264,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $945k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-46k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (71.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $498k (47.3% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($917k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (71.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.7%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?