9829 Twin Creeks Ave

Stockton, CA 95219

$459,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,042 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,732/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax + insurance: −$687
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-1,010/mo
• Annual: $-12,126/yr
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $128,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $459k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (40.5% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manlio Silva Elementary (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #485 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 757 students, 59% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 632 students, 58% FRL); Bear Creek High (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,937 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?