9829 Twin Creeks Ave · Stockton, CA 95219

$459,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,042 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1991 6,020 sqft lot $225/sqft · 11% below area Est $513k · 11% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on market - short sale approved! Welcome to Your Dream Home! Step into this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an expertly manicured front yard and a welcoming front entrance that sets the tone for the warmth inside. Enjoy an abundance of natural light throughout the spacious living room, family room, and dining room, creating the perfect setting for everyday living and entertaining. Cozy up by the fireplace on cool evenings, or spend sunny days relaxing in your private swimming pool. The primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat with a generous walk-in closet, while the inside laundry and 2-car attached garage add everyday convenience. The low-maintenance yard all

Key facts

• Manicured front yard
• Walk-in closet
• Natural light

Tags

• MANICURED FRONT YARD
• WELCOMING FRONT ENTRANCE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIVATE SWIMMING POOL
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• INSIDE LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $459k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (40.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manlio Silva Elementary (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #485 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 757 students, 59% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 632 students, 58% FRL); Bear Creek High (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,937 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,174 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $512,948
• List price: $459,000
• Delta: -10.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9673 Twin Creeks Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,015 (-1%)	1mo	$550,000	$273	84
3742 Estate Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (-3%)	1mo	$425,000	$214	68
4123 Estate Dr	0.56mi	3/3.0	1,984 (-3%)	3mo	$470,000	$237	63
3731 Estate Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,218 (+9%)	3mo	$515,000	$232	61
3672 Mammoth Cave Cir	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (+5%)	4mo	$649,000	$303	60
3489 Canyonlands Rd	0.59mi	3/2.5	2,140 (+5%)	3mo	$518,000	$242	60
3505 Bixby Way	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,030 (-1%)	4mo	$480,000	$236	58
3124 Estate Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,867 (-9%)	8mo	$427,500	$229	48
3522 Chatsworth Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,808 (-12%)	9mo	$455,000	$252	48
9578 Scarboro Pl	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,209 (+8%)	2mo	$530,000	$240	46
3437 Waterfront Cir	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,322 (+14%)	0mo	$530,000	$228	44
9734 Fountain Valley Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (-9%)	8mo	$490,000	$262	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $188,889
• Equity at exit: $413,504

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $613,798
• Equity at exit: $891,736

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax from tax record: −$495 /mo · $5,943/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-1,010

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,011

Max offer price $280,493

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-751	-5% $-881	+0% $-1,010	+5% $-1,140	+10% $-1,270
Rent	-10% $-1,226	-5% $-1,118	+0% $-1,010	+5% $-903	+10% $-795
Rate	-1.0pp $-779	-0.5pp $-894	base $-1,010	+0.5pp $-1,129	+1.0pp $-1,250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,750
• Closing costs: $13,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9521 Twin Brooks Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,750	$1.80	45d	1	0.35mi
9521 Twin Brooks Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,900	$1.89	4d	1	0.35mi
10210 Copco Ln Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	2252	$3,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.85mi
2829 Smoke Tree Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,400	$1.60	45d	1	0.87mi
2519 Stanfield Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,500	$2.19	45d	1	1.19mi
8941 Blue Fox Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1583	$2,300	$1.45	45d	1	1.23mi
9130 Cornwall Dr Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2238	$2,950	$1.32	25d	1	1.37mi
8417 Edgefield Way Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1906	$2,200	$1.15	4d	1	1.40mi
9017 Don Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,600	$1.42	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $459,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $459,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $459,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $459,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $459,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $459,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $459,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $459,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $459,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus $490,000
11. 1991-08-30
    soldstatus $198,000
12. 1990-12-10
    soldstatus $305,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,943 · $495/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,943 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,711
• − Property taxes: −$5,943
• − Insurance: −$2,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,622
• − Management: −$2,622
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$13,353
• Taxable loss: −$20,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,960
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+60.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2021-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $490,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 1990-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,943 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.